A Case For Front-Running Property Tax Abolishment

With the November 2026 election cycle approaching and Ron DeSantis putting forward the idea of abolishing Florida property taxes, it gives me reason to believe that IF this happens, property values will dramatically rise. Whether or not it actually happens, the speculative bet is that investors and home buyers will begin positioning early by front-running the possibility that such reform takes place. The reasoning is pretty straightforward. If Florida were to eliminate property taxes, the reduction in annual ownership cost would dramatically expand purchasing power, especially for financed buyers, as there are no longer property taxes in the monthly debt obligation calculations. With that said, less debt obligations equals more monthly purchasing power. The market tends to price in potential change before it’s official — and this could be one of those moments where speculation itself drives appreciation, and the post election reform will further drive appreciation.

However, this kind of reform wouldn’t necessarily translate to lasting affordability for the end buyer. Increased purchasing power only helps until everyone has it. Once buyers realize they can afford more house, demand spikes and prices rise. It becomes almost a self-reinforcing loop: cheaper to own --> more buyers qualify --> more bidding --> higher prices. This is a demand shock, much like what we saw with Covid ZIRP. Low rates and compressed values, but a tidal wave of demand, which led to a massive increase in property values.

While the abolition of property taxes would help buyers qualify for larger loans, it may simultaneously push home values far beyond current levels, neutralizing much of that benefit, except for those who own property, their equity will rise significantly. The winners would likely be those who front-run the policy — investors and homeowners who buy ahead of the curve, capturing the upside before the market fully reprices.

Whether or not it is actually on the ballot and the law actually passes, positioning early by buying in this somewhat compressed market could actually turn out to be one of the smartest speculative moves you could make ahead of the Nov 2026 election, and into 2027. Yes, it is of course speculation. But a thesis is created and it could pan out very well for those who buy in 2025 and early 2026. Again, the buy side/purchase price is the best way to minimize downside risk.